Future Trends

I think in the next 1.5 years we can expect the curve to at some point start to really take off at a faster rate. I think we can expect to see something in between these two extended trend curves. Both of the following charts use the same measured average data curves that were previously published as D1. These are our conservative average results to date. Both charts have our measured change data being added to 24 hrs to get the total time for a day. This was done because trend line calculations of this type work better without negative numbers and it is more realistic to see the full day plotted. Each chart shows the same data using a different Y-axis scale to focus in on one trend at a time.

D2 shows one possible way to get from the present data trend to an arbitrary one day of accumulated slippage by 15 May 2003. I personally think more than one day of slippage will accumulate especially if the earth stays stopped for more than one day. However, to be conservative this extended trend line uses a 6 order polynomial to estimates the approximate slowing necessary to get from present time (01 Jul 2001) to 15 May 2003.

D3 Shows in more detail the bottom half of the curve. It also shows what a 5th order polynomial extended trend line will do, based on our current data. Note the oscillations in 6th order trend line. I have been noticing this in our data, however, not this large.

Summary: I think in the next 1.5 years we can expect the curve to at some point start to really take off at a faster rate. I think we can expect to see something in between these two extended trend curves.

Offered by Mike.