Sun Spots

Sunspots Could Wreak Havoc During The Next 18 Months
Canadian Press, Jan. 6, 2000

Save those sighs of relief at having survived the Y2K bug, another menace looms: a surge in solar winds that could wreak havoc with pipelines, pagers and power grids. No one is urging a rerun of Y2K hysteria, but the coming peak in the sun's sunspot cycle is getting lots of attention in the scientific world. Some have dubbed it the Year 2001 Problem. Solar winds associated with sunspots can disrupt Earth's magnetic shield, causing problems for many modern technologies, says David Kendall of the Canadian Space Agency. "When the sunspots peak there are more eruptions on the sun, these eruptions are more violent, and there is more material which is ejected into space, and we feel the effects," he said in an interview Wednesday. The solar wind is a stream of electrons, protons and heavy ions, which interact with Earth's magnetic field.

In January 1994, a geomagnetic storm destroyed circuits in the $286-million Anik E-1 satellite, leaving the craft unable to focus signals on Earth and causing chaos in Canadian TV, radio and data transmissions. On March 13, 1987, a magnetic storm caused the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system, leaving six million people without electricity for hours. Many other incidents have been blamed on rough space weather. David Boteler of the Canadian Geological Survey said utilities and corporations are learning from experience and taking precautions, but space weather is difficult to predict. Sunspots - gigantic storms on the solar surface - have been studied almost since the invention of the telescope, but remain poorly understood. The cycle of sunspot activity ranges from nine to 13 years, for an average of 11 years. The current cycle will peak between 2000 and mid-2002.

As technology becomes more sophisticated, vulnerability to electromagnetic disturbances increases. For example, automatic bank machines and pagers rely on satellites. Canada is especially vulnerable because electromagnetic storms affect polar regions most. Such disturbances can dramatically increase the rate of corrosion on northern pipelines. "The increasing technological advances, as well as the movement of populations northward, has dramatically increased the susceptibility of the conduct of human affairs to solar disruptions," says N.C. Gerson of the U.S. National Security Agency, writing in the latest issue of Physics in Canada. "In addition to communications, the transport of power via cable or the transport of gas via pipe also tend to be adversely affected." There is an upside to the increase in sunspot action: Canadians can look forward to spectacular displays of the northern lights, caused by interactions of solar plasma and Earth's atmosphere.